ghp July 2016 | 57 Research & Development A new report published in May, ‘TheGlobal Market for Population Health Management 2016’ Book 1: Problems and Solutions, claims that the cumulative global economic burden of chronic disease is estimated to rise to be around US$240 trillion between 2013 and 2025. The need for solutions to the escalation in healthcare costs is being experienced within both the government and the corporate sectors in almost all countries worldwide. At the same time, suppliers are deterred from entry or expansion due to success-based compensation models, global recession based pricing pressures and the consequent perception of low margins. The 170-page report, compiled by McGrigor Group – a global leader in strategic healthcare consulting (www. mcgrigorgroup.com) – is the first in a series of three reports, and reviews the wide array of preventive, educational and management tools being deployed, such as absence management, health risk assessments, telehealth and holistic wellness programmes. It provides commentary on their purpose, payback and lessons learned. In addition, it outlines the likely buyer categories and their needs and gives indications of demand by region, globally. Leading and emerging suppliers of these solutions are listed, with focus on industry catalysts in this first report. “We’ve found that ROI [Return On Investment] calculations exist but are sometimes unclear or inconclusive, resulting in scepticism as to the value of these tools. Buyers are generally uneducated in this emerging ‘PHM’ area and are often overcome by the ever widening range of ideas,” says James McGrigor, Co-Chairman of International Committee of the PHA (Population Health Alliance) and CEO of McGrigor Group whose publishing division is presenting the report, the first in a series of three available over the 2016-17 period. “Some pioneers are winning. With the fast pace of consumer health information demand, new monitoring technologies, and a more positive mind-set from global politicians and company leaders, this market will start to explode,” adds McGrigor. The report is aimed at investors in this growing area, corporate HR benefits managers looking to create a worthwhile health strategy and suppliers looking at how and where they should focus. It will also be useful for health consultants and Governments struggling to contain the costs of healthcare. The report contains over 50 charts and addresses these core questions: What is the extent of the problem? The scale of the problems posed by chronic disease globally is terrifying. Health services worldwide face unprecedented financial and capacity pressures as a result of ageing populations and the exponential growth in chronic disease. A significant problem delaying the introduction of appropriate solutions is the difficulty in calculating an accurate return on investment and knowing what works where and how? Solutions so far, and lessons learned: A review of tools collected into four categories: data collection and analysis; prevention and education; managed intervention; and delivery mechanisms, assesses their pros and cons and reveals the current points of debate. We conclude that whilst some are clearly effective, PHM is best applied as a holistic, measured, strategic program, rather than a myriad of short term fads. Then the argument looks strong. Who will buy? The US continues to offer the greatest opportunities for providers of PHM because of the progressive change provoked by the Affordable Care Act. Larger employers, both from the government sector and particularly the private sector are the largest buyers, although the new Accountable Care Organizations and care provider groups are also developing rapidly. Other parts of the world offering the most potential are China (state and privately owned companies) and Latin America (the corporate sector and health insurers). Who will drive Awareness and Adoption? More so than ever before, the market is being catalysed by several evangelists. The pioneers, that is the employee benefit consultants and the wellness solution providers, are now joined by new players from assistance, catering, pharma and tech. This groundswell is driving the message globally but also requires ever greater coordination. How big is the Opportunity? McGrigor Group reviews the existing sizing data and concludes that it is inconsistent and potentially underestimates the global market. However current estimates indicate a market of around $40 billion, with significant growth of 2-3 times that, over the next five years. Other Reports in the Series • Report 2: This report focuses specifically on the market potential for PHM services in the Americas and the Middle East. It shows what has been achieved and what will come. It analyses the winning suppliers in these regions, their differences and plans. Due for publication: late 2016 • Report 3: The focus here is on opportunities and suppliers in Europe, Asia and ROW. It contains case studies of what has been done and suggestions on the key opportunities for each region. Due for publication: mid 2017 The report is available here: www.mcgrigorgroup.com/index.php/about-mcgrigor- publishing CEO, James McGrigor, is Co-Chairman of the International Committee of the Population Health Alliance (www.populationhealthalliance.org/) The first report in a series, explaining global solutions and likely regional demand in Population Health Management, was recently launched by leading global healthcare strategy consultancy, McGrigor Group.